The ongoing tariff-induced trade war between the US and several of its trade partners could prompt high net worth individuals (HNWI) and family offices to reassess their cross-border strategies and look for greater jurisdictional stability, according to Ocorian.

The financial services provider stated that the geopolitical uncertainty seemed to be driving HNW and family office clients to act and move ahead with their estate planning or structuring needs.

While acknowledging it may be too early to predict the full impact with certainty, Ocorian said the increased volatility in global trade, and rising concerns over valuation, inflation, and deal-making conditions, could lead many HNWIs and family offices to put greater focus on succession planning, second citizenships, and asset protection structures in ‘safe haven’ jurisdictions.

These priorities position jurisdictions such as the Channel Islands, Singapore, Hong Kong, the Cayman Islands, and the British Virgin Islands favourably, according to Ocorian, as they are widely views as being stable and predictable jurisdictions that are insulated to some degree from sudden changes in US trade policy.

Research from Ocorian found that nearly four in five family offices had opened new physical presences in multiple jurisdictions over the past five years, a trend that was likely to accelerate if volatility continues.

“Predictability, the rule of law and long-term certainty are central priorities for HNWIs and family offices,” said Ocorian head of APAC, Robin Harris.

“The unpredictability of the current geopolitical landscape – particularly in relation to US tariffs – is creating a climate in which clients are more likely to take proactive steps to protect their wealth and plan for the long term.

“While it’s too soon to say definitively, we anticipate an uptick in private client activity as uncertainty increases. By contrast, corporate transactions may slow temporarily – not solely due to market fundamentals, but also because pricing risk has become significantly harder.

“Financiers are increasingly in ‘risk-off’ mode, with many lenders scaling back – or even halving – the leverage available to support transactions. That makes deal financing much more complex in today’s environment.

“There are no tested economic models for a trade standoff of this scale in the modern era. Theories exist, but we are in uncharted territory.

“What is clear is that uncertainty makes individuals and institutions more cautious – and that, in itself, can drive significant behavioural shifts.”

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