Private wealth client portfolios are on track to recoup the losses caused by the Trump administration’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement in April, analysis from Asset Risk Consultants (ARC) has found.
Despite the improvements from the tariff-induced poor performance, ARC warned investors that now was not the time to relax.
According to its latest data, the average return of the ARC Sterling Steady Growth Index, which is based on the most common risk profile run by discretionary investment managers, was estimated to have risen by 2.8 per cent in May.
This would result in year-to-date performance of -0.4 per cent, according to the analysis.
ARC noted that May saw a continuation of the rebound in equity markets from the April lows, as confidence was boosted by the announcement of a temporary 90-day reduction in US/China tariffs and better-than-expected earnings results from the likes of Nvidia.
This resulted in a gain of nearly 6 per cent in global equities when measured in US dollars.
Furthermore, ARC noted that investors with a bias towards growth were back in the ascendency, with global growth stocks outperforming their value counterparts by approximately 6 percentage points.
Commenting on the findings, ARC Research managing director, Dan Hurdley, said: “As Benjamin Graham observed more than half a century ago, in the short run the stock market is a voting machine rather than a weighing machine.
“The recovery in stock markets during May perhaps reflects a re-assessment of the economic damage that the US may cause in aggressively pursuing autarky.
“However, this is not a time for investors to relax, as in the longer-term stock markets behave like weighing machines and the reversal of global liberalisation will inevitably bring slower economic growth, higher budget deficits and lower corporate profitability.
“Those investors who have until recently enjoyed the benefits of being ‘risk-on’ should probably be considering a move to a ‘risk-neutral’ position for their portfolios. Ignore the recent market tremors at your peril.”
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